Friday, November 12, 2010

Ag stocks holding up in short downturn

With the possible 2-4 percent pullback in stocks coming (maybe more), it seems that commodities are holding up. Most of these stocks are still getting bought and holding up at their resistance points. The reason isnt inflation as much as overall demand. Earlier in the year their were reports of a shortage of wheat in Russia which pushed wheat prices up to 52 week highs. After these reports Russia stopped all exports. Russia is a big producer, and generally when their is a shortage, and wheat prices are up, their will be an increase in seed and fertilizer purchases. Plus fertilizer will benefit from commodity price increases. If there is a shortage, many countries that do not use the full amount of fertilizer will, and continue to for some time. Another reason for strength in this area is the overall demand for commodities and products have decreased substantially over the past few years, due to the "Great Recession". Food doesnt have this problem, as people may cut back on electronics or furniture, but they need food. This need only changes somewhat, and will decrease more so with respect to things like higher end fruits and maybe some types of meat, but cutbacks are rarely seen in wheat, corn and soybeans.
These commodities have not only seen an increase in usage, but also their are thoughts of increases in inflation based on the US Fed's printing of dollars. There was a QE2, but dont be surprised if there is a QE3 or QE4 if the political environment of cutting spending increases. This environment makes it difficult for Congress to pass any bills meant to create jobs, and with only the hopes of the Bush tax cut continuing the only hope is the Fed printing more money. Either way the policy does exhist and will continue to for some time. Inflation, demand and need will continue to push this sector upward. Lastly, the newest report on cuts in expected supply of corn and soybeans. This will continue to push up agricultural stock prices. Stocks in this sector that look good to me are SQM, IPI, CMP and SEED. Look for China to continue to buy food and other commodities at high levels as they lower purchases in US treasuries.

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